Water AetherwingTier 2
at リージョナル In Hasuya
decks
6
(7.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
35
15-17-3
overall winrate
47.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.4%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
45.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1251
· median 1215
· range 1025–1500
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1025
Q1 1194
Q3 1409
1619
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.6% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -0.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 41.8% | -6.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.2% | -10.4 |
| Water Allies | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.1 |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.7% | +3.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.7% | +25.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +3.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Water Genbu | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Chess | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
